Tariq Ali: "The occupation authorities are trapped. The occupation is costing $3.9bn a month. Politically, if they permit a democratic election they could get a government whose legitimacy is unchallengeable and which wants them out of the country. If they go for a rigged, Florida-style vote, it would be impossible to contain Shia anger and an armed resistance would commence in the south, raising the spectre of a civil war."